Thoughts on: Keeneland – Race 2 – Thursday, April 24, 2025
This one is the first five and a half furlong event on the grass this spring, and it is open to both fillies and colts/geldings, and it drew the max. However, only 12 will head to the starting gate. Only one filly steps forward to challenge the boys. No First-Crop sires are represented.
#5 Twirling Ridge (10/1) – One of two in the main field that has raced before, having previously run on 4/13/25. John A. Hancock (3/32, 9.4%) trains this son of Twirling Candy (18.2%). He is out of an Eskendereya mare that was winless in 12 tries. She’s thrown four other foals of racing age, two won as 2YOs in a MSW race, one as a First-Time starter, and one that scored on his second outing. Today’s runner RNAed as a yearling for $30,000.
#7 Raffinato (3/1) – Bred in Great Britain, this is the lone filly in the main draw. She’s sired by the Irish sire, Blue Point, and comes from an unraced Irish-bred mare who has two other foals of racing age. Brad Cox (0/1) is the conditioner for Stonestreet Stables, who plunked down $292,835 (18/64) for this gal as a yearling in 2024. She’s breezed five times at Payson Park Training Center, one of those efforts covered a half mile. Flavien Prat will grab the reins.
#8 Tough Critic (6/1) – George Weaver (0/2) will cinch the saddle for Dew Sweepers, LLC, who purchased this Caravaggio colt for $47,000 last year as a yearling. Her Irish-bred dam, from Invincible Spirit, was 0 for 3 on the track, and she’s tossed three other foals of racing age. All four of his works have been at Palm Beach Downs, with the last two covering four panels. Johnny V has received the call to climb aboard.
#10 Longshoreman (8/5) – You likely know by looking at his Morning Line odds that this colt comes from ‘The Maestro’s’ barn (23/51, 45.1%) He’s another that is by Twirling Candy (18.2%), and his dam scored back in 2019 as a baby here at Keeneland in the spring as a FTSer, earning an amazing 104 Equibase Speed Figure. She has tossed two other foals of racing age. This guy hammered for $260K last year as a yearling (13/86). He worked once at Turfway in late February before Wes shipped him to Keeneland, where he’s been out on six mornings. On 3/30/25, he went three panels from the gate in 34.8 seconds (3/10), and his last was the same distance - 35.8 (3/23). Irad Ortiz, Jr. will get the leg up.
Note: Wes Ward also has #15 Daphne Blue, who is on the AE list.
My Pick – Gosh, I hate to do it, but I’ve got to go with W2 again. #10 Longshoreman is my pick. Ward’s runner came up short yesterday, but I don’t see him losing two days in a row, especially with this one being contested on the turf. This guy’s mom was ultra precocious, and his dad hits at a high rate with babies. Additionally, his works have been spectacular. I expect Cox’s filly, #7, will take a good chunk of the money, so maybe we’ll get a fair price.