Thoughts on: Churchill Downs – Race 2 – Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Churchill Downs kicks off Derby Week, but more importantly, they host their first Two-Year-Old MSW race of 2025. 14 fillies have been entered, and 12 will walk into the starting gate for this 4 ½ furlong dash on the dirt. Two starters come from the First-Crop sires, one each from Beau Liam and Yaupon.
#4 Wakuda (10/1) – Sired by Gun Runner (19.2%), this Winchell homebred filly comes from a young American Pharoah dam who won three times in eight starts and earned $79,000. She scored at first asking as a juvenile at Remington Park, and today’s runner is her first foal. Trainer Steve Asmussen (24.1%) has had her out for three morning spins over the Churchill oval, each at 3/8th of a mile. Her last was a small bullet done in 36.6 seconds from the gate (1/7).
#5 Baffle (9/2) – Todd Pletcher (0/5) will saddle this filly by Violence (14.7%). Her mama, by Munnings, won as a First-Time starter at age 2 at Penn National. She went on to get her picture taken a total of four times in ten starts and banked $274K. This gal is her first foal. Repole purchased her as a yearling in 2024 for $130K (16/44). Todd has put 27 furlongs of work into her over eight works, all at Palm Beach Downs.
#6 Moonlight Beauty (4/1) – This filly is a homebred from Wesley Ward (15.4%), and of course, he also schools her. She’s by Hootenanny (4/11, 36.4%) and is from an unraced American Pharoah mare whose first foal is today’s starter. Wes has had her out to work on four mornings, the last three at Keeneland, and her most recent two have covered a half mile.
#7 Sassy C W (7/2) – The morning line favorite is conditioned by Larry Rivelli and sired by Yaupon. Her Tiznow mare was 0 for 6 on the track and has thrown five other foals of racing age, but has not had much success. This gal has gone through the sales ring three times and sold for significantly more at each auction. When she was a weanling, the hammer fell at $30,000 (35/36); last year, as a yearling, she sold for $190K (39/129), and earlier this season she brought a handsome $375K (6/37). Her four morning efforts have all been completed in Chicago at Hawthorne, and each covered three panels. Her next-to-last move was a solid bullet done in 35.0 seconds flat (1/19).
My Pick – I can’t pass up a Gun Runner filly who was thrown by a FTS winner and who is trained by Asmussen. So, my pick is #4 Wakuda. I don’t expect to get anywhere near 10/1, but that’s ok, I think she’s going to get us off to a good start at the Churchill Spring meet.