Talkin' Babies

First-Time Starters vs. Non FTSers

As many of you who follow me know, I love First-Time starters. However, the reality is that they simply do not win at the same rate as babies who have started previously. Recently, I ran some quick numbers for 2024 covering my five favorite tracks (Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Ellis Park, Kentucky Downs, and Saratoga) and found that the ‘Strike Rate’ for FTSers in all of these 2YO MSW races was nearly three percentage points lower than those who have already started at least one time (9.1% vs 11.7%). Additionally, the ROI was also slightly higher for the Non-FTS group, $1.42, with the figure $0.03 lower for FTSers.

Granted, the sample size of this study is relatively small as it only includes 273 races. I’ll do some deeper dives.

Bottom line, as you can see from the numbers above, although First-Time Starters can be particularly exciting, oftentimes they do not provide the best value.

More soon, stay warm!